Thursday, August 12, 2004

hinden-nader cont...

I have to make a counterpoint to the fine remarks the humungous made on the nader candidacy. I’m really not worried about him anymore. he's tracking 1-4% and not much more. he's not even going to be on the ballot in multiple states (although the important ones are the battleground states). anyway, I think when it comes time to walk into the voting booth, those lefties who were steadfast in their support of nader, will change their minds. but what makes that statement useful in its naiveté is that I don't think nader's support is made up of lefties. what's left is probably a mix of libertarians and anarchist types who never really considered the democratic party a home, so assuming they would by default flock to the democrats if nader wasn't running, is a false assumption. I think they are a real mix of malcontents and sourpusses who are completely disgusted with the political system and like nader's radical vision for government (a vision many of us on the left don't necessarily find radical in theory, but radical in that they could never happen within the corporate structure that is our society.).

there, I said it, nader doesn't worry me, even with upwards of 4% of the vote. you look at the polls, and without nader, Kerry never does any better than a 1-2% bounce.

Master Blaster

3 Comments:

At August 12, 2004 at 5:49 PM, Blogger Master-Blaster and Lord Humungus said...

'never does better than a 1-2% bounce' ?

have you looked at the gap in the battleground states ? a 1-2% bounce in 15 states where nader is on the ballot, and this race is over. 1-2% is HUGE for this election.

 
At August 12, 2004 at 6:05 PM, Blogger Master-Blaster and Lord Humungus said...

With an error rate of 3-4%? no way, 1-2% is not important in the context of these polls. of course it's important in the final vote tally, but in polling, i don't think it's useful. nice try!

 
At August 13, 2004 at 9:45 AM, Blogger Master-Blaster and Lord Humungus said...

my esteemed colleague misunderstands the nature of statistical error. the +/- of 4% is moot; being that the gap is well within that margin, analyzing the data can only lead to the conclusion that the race is virtually tied, in which case a 1-2% bounce from nader's exit becomes all the more critical. polling vs. voting, statistical error, etc..., spin it however you like - nader's presence is taking votes from the kerry column, and that is both dangerous and saddening.

- the humungus

 

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