Wednesday, August 18, 2004

the other possibility

most discussion on the topic of a 'major event' influencing the presidential election has focused on the notion of a dramatic domestic terrorist attack, and rightly so. but george will notes an alternative possibility today in the WaPost - an election-targeted offensive in Iraq:

". . . what may be coming before November: an Iraqi version of the North Vietnamese Tet offensive of 1968. To say that the coming offensive will be by "Baathists" is, according to one administration official, akin to saying "Nazis" when you mean "the SS" -- the most fearsome of the Nazis. Such an offensive could make Sadr's insurgency seem a minor irritant. And it could unmake a presidency, as Tet did. "


is this more or less likely than a terrorist attack ? clearly its less likely to influence the election, unless its truly Tet-like in intensity and consequences . . .

- LH


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